After above-average rainfall impacted some regions during last year's harvest period, Australia's stone fruit production is forecast to increase this marketing year.

According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, most stone fruit growing regions experienced average to below-average temperatures at the end of fall and winter, leading to a strong bud burst. 

Australia's Bureau of Meteorology forecasts a chance of regular rainfall from September to November in most cherry, peach, and nectarine-producing regions this year. Thanks to the average rainfall and ample irrigation water availability, growers will be equipped to manage fruit growth and diseases. 

According to the report, if the weather continues its favorable trend, "production and quality will improve compared to 2023/24."

Cherry exports are forecasted to increase by 25%, potentially becoming the second highest on record, and peach and nectarine exports are expected to rise by 4%.

Imports are also forecast to improve to 1,500 metric tons (MT) in marketing year (MY) 2024/25 from a downward revised 700 MT estimated for MY 2023/24, marking a return to pre-COVID trade levels after recent year supply chain disruptions. 

The 114% growth from MY 2023/24 is primarily due to a three-week suspension of stone fruit trade from the U.S. to Australia associated with a biosecurity issue. 

The trade for stone fruit from the U.S. to Australia was suspended in the lead-up to the peak peach and nectarine production period in the Pacific Northwest region, which is Australia's main U.S. source of imports.

Cherry production 

Cherry production in Australia this season, the fruit is forecast to increase to 20,000 MT, up from the downward-revised estimate of 18,500 MT for MY 2023/24.

The increase can be mainly attributed to expected favorable production conditions, and average to below-average temperatures. But, despite the growth, the forecast remains subdue aligning with two past results over recent years.

The production forecast is 17% higher than the previous five-year average and up 8% above the previous marketing season. 

The major irrigated cherry-producing region in northern Victoria expects ample water availability. Irrigation storage dams are already at high levels before the typical spring period inflows.

Domestic cherry consumption is expected to increase to 17,000 MT, up from an estimated 15,500 MT in MY 2023/24, and fresh cherry exports are forecast to increase significantly to 5,000 MT in MY 2024/25, up from a downward-revised estimate of 4,000 MT in MY 2023/24. 

If achieved, the forecast export level would be the second highest on record. 

Australia's cherry exports five top destinations, Hong Kong, Vietnam, Singapore, Taiwan, and China - account for over 75% to 80%of overall exports. According to the report, thanks to improved cherry quality and overall export volume increase, shipments to these five destinations are expected to grow. 

Peaches/Nectarines

2024/25 production of peaches and nectarines is forecast to rise to 90,000 MT, an increase of 6% or 5,000 MT from last season's marketing year. This can be attributed to good chill hours, average rainfall in the coming months, and ample irrigation water availability. 

Thanks to an increase in production, domestic consumption in MY 2024/25 is forecast to rise to 77,500 MT, up from the downward-revised MY 2023/24 consumption estimate of 72,300 MT, and exports are forecast to increase to 14,000 MT.

After export shipping and air freight, COVID-19-related disruptions and steep increases in air freight rates, peach and nectarine exports for MY 2024/25 are expected to shift back to a pre-pandemic focus on peach exports.

85% of all Australian peach exports are going to mainly Asia, with China being the main destination, accounting for one-third of overall exports in recent years.