According to the August Stone Fruit Annual report by the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Japan's cherry production has been substantially impacted by high temperatures in the largest volume production region.

The Fresh cherry production in the 2024/25 marketing year (MY) is estimated to fall to 14,700 metric tons (MT), due to a decrease in domestic production Tokyo's USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS/Tokyo) forecasts an increase in U.S. cherry imports to 5,600 for the 2024/25 marketing year (MY). 

FAS/Tokyo forecasts Japan's peach production to remain relatively the same as the previous year and U.S. nectarine imports to Japan will remain relatively unchanged.

High temperatures in June led to undesirable, accelerated cherry ripening in Japan's Yamagata prefecture, which produces approximately 75 percent of Japan’s fresh cherries.

Originally, The Yamagata prefectural government initially announced that estimated production would be 10% lower compared to the previous year. However, data from Japanese wholesale markets indicates that transactions of fresh cherries via fruit markets have decreased by more than 40% compared to last year. 

The USDA forecasts Japan’s total fresh cherry production will decrease by 15% to 14,700 MT in the 2024/25 MY, and commercial cherry distribution is impacted further by a 34% reduction. 

According to the report, In the 2024/25 MY, large volumes of fresh cherries either remained unharvested or did not meet marketing standards, significantly reducing fresh cherry distribution in Japan.

Fresh cherries in Japan consist of three major yellow-cherry varieties: satonishiki, beni-shuhou, and beni-sayaka. Satonishki has maintained the top position for a long time, as the variety that is best known by Japanese consumers. However, single-variety cultivation carries the risk of overlapping harvest periods, straining the limited workforce.

The United States is the leading fresh cherry exporter to Japan with approximately 91% import share in 2023/24 MY.

The state of California is Japan's main cherry trading partner beginning in May, followed by Oregon and Washington cherries later in the season. Japanese consumption of U.S. cherries was up by an estimated 60% to 5,900 MT in 2024/25.