The current fruit set on California avocado trees across multiple growing regions is considerably higher this year compared to previous years, leading many growers to project a potential increase in the 2025 crop harvest size, the California Avocado Commission (CAC) recently shared. 

Bountiful rains in 2023 and 2024 were partially responsible for a smaller than normal 2023 crop and delayed 2024 harvest, but also contributed positively to soil and tree health.

"The Commission is very enthusiastic about the possibility of larger crops in the near future," said CAC Vice President of Marketing Terry Splane. "However, we're tempering that enthusiasm with caution, as many factors could positively or negatively affect the size of the 2025 California avocado crop, such as excessive heat, wind or frost. It's simply too early to know for sure."

The optimistic outlook for 2025 is partly due to significant grower investment in new plantings over the last decade, which are now reaching prime production. These new plantings were to replace older, less productive trees as well as trees lost to fires and other challenges. Some growers have also planted additional trees to increase acreage or move to higher density planting models. This investment is reflected in roughly 3 million new avocado trees in California from 2013 to 2023, averaging 265,000 per year.

In addition to new plantings, California avocado farmers have invested in various rootstocks and varieties, while also implementing operational improvements to secure better yields. This is evidenced by the overall increase in average per-acre yield for California avocado groves.

To support the next season's harvest, CAC plans to expand the California avocado advertising program launched in 2024. This will spotlight the California difference and focus on communicating the locally grown, sustainably farmed attributes. 

CAC representatives will welcome customers and colleagues in their booth #B2538 at the upcoming International Fresh Produce Association Global Produce and Floral Show in Atlanta to kick off planning with retailers.