In this installment of the ‘Agronometrics In Charts’ series, we analyze historical price trends from the 2024 IBO report. Each week the series looks at a different horticultural commodity, focusing on a specific origin or topic visualizing the market factors that are driving change.

The recently released IBO report offers key insights into the factors shaping global blueberry production and pricing. This comprehensive analysis delves into the industry's current landscape and prospects. According to the report, blueberry import prices surged to unprecedented levels in 2023, with the average price reaching $7.01/kg, surpassing the previous record of $6.48/kg set in 2016.

The sharp price increase was primarily driven by a 23% decline in export volumes from Peru, which was severely affected by adverse El Niño conditions. Despite these challenges, global import volumes have grown by 226% since 2016, underscoring the growing demand for blueberries worldwide.

The accompanying chart illustrates a clear inverse relationship between the reduction in import volumes and the sharp rise in average prices during 2023. While import volumes steadily increased from 2014 to 2022, they saw a decline in 2023, corresponding to the drastic rise in prices. This suggests that supply-related constraints, particularly from major producers like Peru, had a direct impact on driving prices upward as global demand continued to grow.

Additionally, the chart highlights how, despite fluctuations in pricing over the years, the steady upward trajectory of import volumes has consistently been met with growing consumer demand, suggesting a robust market outlook for blueberries in the coming years.

These insights not only reflect the immediate market pressures but also emphasize the broader global dynamics affecting production and pricing, offering valuable foresight into future market behaviors.

Source: Agronometrics Global Trade Data