The third 2024 Farm Sector Income Forecast released by the United States Department of Agriculture predicts a slower rate, but higher decrease in farm sector income in 2024 compared to 2023. 

The Economic Research Service published the farm income statement three times a year, with the December 3rd report being their latest release. 

In a presentation led by USDA Economic Research Service Economist Carrie Litkowski, she said the forecast isn't that much different from the prior forecast released in September, "but somehow it feels a little bit more important as we near the end of the year to evaluate the current state of the farm economy as a starting point for considering what challenges and opportunities are available." 

According to the report, farm profits are forecast to decline further in 2024. Net cash farm income for calendar year 2024 is forecast at $158.8 billion, down 1.8 billion or 1.1% compared to 2023 (in nominal dollars), and net farm income is forecast at $140.7 billion, down $6.0 billion or 4.1%. 

Total crop receipts are forecast to decrease by $25.0 billion (9.2%) from 2023 levels to $246.2 billion in 2024, crop value production is down $32.5 billion, with corn and soybeans driving the decline in crop cash receipts this year. 

fruits and nuts are expected to fall by $0.6 billion (2.1%) during the year, except melons, which the agency accounts for in conjunction with vegetables. Both melons and vegetables saw are expected to increase by $1.7 billion (6.7%) in 2024. 

Litkowski noted that although the agency expects a higher quantity of crops sold in the market, lower prices are expected to outweigh the increase. 

Livestock, poultry purchases and labor expenses aer expected to see the largest increase in dollar in 2024, and feed and fertilizer will see the biggest decline. 

Farm sector liquidity is expected to worsen this year, however, 2023 bankruptcy rate was at its lowest level since 2004, so she clarifies it's normal to see an increase. 

To help farmers breathe a little easier, the agency also notes that total production expenses will also decrease, including those with operator dwellings, by $8.0 billion, or 1.7%. Farm sector equity, debt, and assets are expected to increase by 5.2%, to $3.68 trillion in 2024 in nominal terms.