Currently, Chile is the world’s dried plums leading exporter, playing a significant role in the plum industry. The country's export season is nearly complete, with the new harvest of Chilean plums set to begin in February 2025.

To gain an insight into the sector, Freshfruitportal.com spoke with the head of the plum program at PacificNut, Pablo Campino.

He explained that the Chilean plum industry for 2024 is almost wrapped up, "which started a bit slow but picked up speed in the second half of the year, allowing us to sell all the expected volumes to the markets."

From an agronomic perspective, Campino noted that the orchards currently have well-defined fruit. "We had good winter conditions, particularly in terms of chill hours, which allowed for excellent flowering. Then, the spring weather was quite favorable, which helped with a great fruit set and a strong fruit load in the orchards."

He added that it was a year with good rainfall during the winter, "so there's good water accumulation in the soils and in the mountains, which means we have all the factors in place for a good 2025 season with good volumes and sizes."

Regarding the start of the next season, he mentioned that they expect the harvest to begin around February 15, 2025, followed by the dehydration process in March.  He also noted that the amount of fruit hanging on the trees was similar to the previous year, but the big difference they're seeing is in the conversion of fresh fruit to dried fruit.

"Last year, we had fruit with lower dry matter, so when we dehydrated it, our conversion rate was nearly 4 kilograms of fresh fruit to 1 kilogram of dried fruit, instead of the usual 3 to 1," he explained. "Today, we are seeing good fruit loads, similar to or even better than last year, so we are projecting a much better dehydration conversion rate than last year. Additionally, so far, conditions are shaping up for better fruit quality and size."

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Chilean plum industry challenges

Given Chile's prominent position in the dried plum industry, challenges remain. According to Campino, "The main challenges are the climate, along with trying to be as efficient as possible with costs and production; we need to find that balance."

Regarding profit, he emphasized that it has been good in recent years. "This year, since the fruit results weren't as positive, producers are quite tight on their economic margins, so it's hard to start a season well when the margins are already very narrow."

Profitability of Fresh vs. Dried Fruit

The industry has recently shifted regarding the profitability of the business, as the fruit can now be directed either for fresh consumption or dehydration. "I believe both businesses can coexist well. For example, if a producer has an orchard that has been in place for many years, originally planted with the idea of mechanizing and dedicating it 100% to dehydration, today they can make certain load regulation adjustments, aiming for 10-20% of fresh fruit and leaving the rest for dehydration."

He argued that this model works quite well and helps the producer achieve greater profitability from the productive hectares. He mentioned that some producers focus more on fresh fruit, while others focus more on dehydration, "which will depend on each producer and the management they carry out in the orchards."

From his perspective, fresh fruit presents a great opportunity due to the demand from China, as Chile is in the off-season.

"Additionally, they are also producers themselves, so I believe there is a good opportunity in the fresh plum market, but the dried fruit industry needs to be better aligned with the fresh fruit industry, both at the exporter and producer levels. There have been many mistakes made, and mistakes continue to be made in terms of quality."

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He pointed out that, to achieve maximum profitability as a producer, the key factor is the quality of the fruit.

Regarding dried fruit, the head of the plum program at PacificNut mentioned that it has been a quite stable business over the past five years, "well above its historical returns, making it very attractive."

He added that "Chile is the world's leading producer and exporter, so the country's production is crucial on a global level. We have significant competitive advantages in terms of climate, soil, and mechanization, which results in high productivity and makes the business even more profitable."

Markets

Another key point in the Chilean plum industry is the diversification of markets. "In terms of market, it's very attractive because it has a broad market; it doesn't rely solely on any one segment. It sells very well in Europe."

Regarding China, he said that in the last four seasons, the market has grown enormously, and the Indian market has also opened its doors.

He argued that the industry should also focus on markets like Brazil, Mexico, and Canada, which are also large, "which allows us to place different qualities and calibers worldwide."

From his perspective, the balance lies in achieving returns on fresh fruit, ideally over $1 to $1.20, "for it to be truly profitable, as we’ve also had lower returns, which are losses for the producer."

He explained that for dried plums, the last season saw prices above $2.40, "which I believe are historic prices." He projected that the average price for dried fruit would be between $1.45 and $1.50, "which might be the lowest point in recent years, but still above the historical average for dried plums."