President-elect Donald Trump has pledged to deport millions of illegal immigrants after assuming office. This decision could cripple agriculture businesses in the U.S. that rely heavily on immigrant workers, according to a new report. 

According to the U.S. Department of Labor, immigrants comprise about two-thirds of the country's crop farmworkers. Roughly two in five are not legally authorized to work in the United States.

USDA data shows that in 2020–22, 32% of crop farmworkers were U.S.-born, 7% were immigrants who had obtained U.S. citizenship, and 19% were other authorized immigrants (primarily permanent residents or green card holders). The remaining 42% held no work authorization.

The country is already experiencing labor shortages, and farmers find recruiting and retaining workers difficult. 

Rice University's Baker Institute for Public Policy report states that economic and population growth has increased the demand for fresh produce (fruits and vegetables), which mostly still requires human labor.

"In this context, immigrants play a vital role in keeping the agricultural sector working. Today, foreign workers — both documented and undocumented — play a disproportionate role in ensuring a reliable supply of food for American households," the report states. 

Agriculture is recognized as one of the sectors with the highest proportion of undocumented workers.

Vice President-elect J.D. Vance said they will start their deportation campaigns at a minimum target of 1 million immigrants a year. During his first term as president, Donald Trump deported 1.5 million people. 

H-2A Visa program

The H-2A visa program allows foreign workers to work as guests in the U.S. temporarily. More than 300,000 visas were issued in 2023. 

Currently, H-2A workers constitute roughly 10% of the crop farm labor force in the U.S. The top commodities relying on H-2A labor are berries, apples, and tobacco.

Although the list includes many nations, according to the Baker Institute of Public Policy, nearly 90% of H—2A workers come from Mexico. 

However, given the difficult hiring process and the high costs of employing H-2A workers, the program is only a viable and affordable option for large-scale farms.

The Baker Institute report concludes that farm labor shortages threaten food security in the U.S., the livelihoods of farmers and farmworkers, and the economies and identity of rural communities.

Additionally, without a reliable workforce in agriculture, the country can expect to see major domestic and global political consequences, including increased food imports and price hikes, the report states.

How viable are mass deportations for the Trump administration?

As immigrants brace for the potential of mass deportation operations, experts analyze how viable these operations are, considering the economic cost and the number of people required to put the plan into action. 

What will it take for Trump to deport the estimated 11 million illegal immigrants that live in the U.S.?

Trump says he plans to declare a national emergency and use the U.S. military to carry out his plan once he takes office. 

BBC News reports that experts estimate that the total bill for one million or more deportations would run into tens or even hundreds of billions of dollars.

The government would also have to build more detention centers to hold immigrants awaiting trial with an immigration judge. 

The number of border patrol personnel and ICE agents required to reach Trump's goal would pose a logistical challenge. 

Trump has said he would involve the National Guard or other US military forces to help with deportations.

For now, the President-elect seems keen on sticking to his deportation plans as a top priority for his administration. He states that there could also be incentives for state and local police departments to participate and that those who do not "won't partake in the riches."

"We have to do this," Trump said during an interview with Time magazine. "This is not a sustainable problem for our country."

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