In this installment of the ‘Agronometrics In Charts’ series, we take a look at the state of the U.S. fresh pear industry. Each week the series looks at a different horticultural commodity, focusing on a specific origin or topic visualizing the market factors that are driving change.

According to the recently published Fresh Apples, Grapes, and Pears: World Markets and Trade Report published by the USDA, the U.S. fresh pear industry is set to face a historic downturn in the 2024/25 season, with production and exports forecast to reach their lowest levels in decades. Total U.S. pear production is expected to drop 20% to 470,000 metric tons—the smallest harvest since the 1967/68 season.

Adverse weather has taken a toll across all three major producing states: Washington, Oregon, and California. Washington, historically the largest pear-producing state, is projected to see a staggering 30% drop in output, with production falling below Oregon’s for the first time.

A January freeze and unseasonably cold spring weather severely damaged trees and blossoms, exacerbating a decade-long trend of declining acreage. Oregon and California also reported double-digit declines of 15% and 17%, respectively, further tightening supplies. Prices were up 17.5% in week 50, compared to the same time last season.

Constrained by this limited harvest, U.S. fresh pear exports are forecast to drop to 85,000 tons, a 25,000-ton decrease from the previous year and the lowest level since 1988/89. This figure represents less than half the export volume of a decade ago.

Canada and Mexico, which account for 90% of U.S. pear exports, will see reduced shipments, threatening the U.S.'s dominant market share of 90% in Mexico and 50% in Canada. Imports, however, are projected to rise only slightly to 80,000 tons. While high domestic prices might attract pears from the Southern Hemisphere, supply increases are expected to be minimal.

Limited substitutability of popular U.S. varieties like Bosc and Green Anjou with Asian pears from China also restricts import growth. Domestically, pear consumption is forecast to fall to its lowest level in four decades, continuing a long-term trend of declining demand. Fresh market prices are expected to remain high, diverting some supply from processing.

Despite the downturn, canned pear inventories remain robust, mitigating pressures on the processed market. The 2024/25 season underscores significant challenges for the U.S. pear industry, from climate impacts to shifting global market dynamics. With exports and domestic consumption at record lows, the industry must adapt to preserve its market position and support long-term growth.

Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics

(Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)

Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics

(Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)