For the 2024/25 marketing year, total EU citrus production is expected to decrease to 10.1 million metric tons (MT), according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture—a drop from last year’s 10.5 million MT. Production of oranges, mandarins, and lemons is forecast to contract compared to the previous marketing year, with grapefruits being the only exception, showing an expected increase in output.

Citrus yields have been affected primarily by climate-related issues, including "extreme heat, drought leading to irrigation water limitations, hail, frost, flooding, or torrential rains," and other adverse weather events. Another factor impacting citrus production is the rising cost of farming. According to the report, citrus farming expenses—including energy, labor, and plant protection—have increased over the past two years.

Spain and Italy remain the leading citrus producers in the EU, followed by Greece, Portugal, and Cyprus.

Oranges

Oranges are the largest citrus category within the EU, with Spain accounting for 50% of the bloc's production. This year, production is projected to reach just over 5.6 million MT. Despite a greater orange supply in Spain, the overall decline is primarily attributed to a significant reduction in Italy’s output compared to last year.

Orange juice imports are expected to increase, with most of the supply coming from Brazil and Egypt. However, EU orange juice exports are projected to decrease in line with the reduction in domestic supply. The United Kingdom remains the largest destination for EU orange juice, accounting for over half of the bloc’s exports.

Tangerines and Mandarins

Tangerine and mandarin production is expected to decline slightly, from 2.9 million MT last year to 2.8 million MT. Similar to oranges, Spain remains the largest producer of mandarins and tangerines in the EU, though its production is projected to decrease this marketing year.

Despite concerns over potential damage from DANA (a Spanish acronym for a High-Altitude Isolated Depression) on October 29, 2024, the report notes that "the consequences on the overall EU tangerine and mandarin output are expected to be limited."

In Italy, tangerine and mandarin production is also forecast to decline due to ongoing drought conditions in Sicily and Calabria.

Imports are expected to remain stable, with increased shipments anticipated from South Africa, Morocco, Israel, and Turkey.

Lemons and Limes

Lemon and lime production is forecast to decrease slightly, totaling just over 1.5 million MT. The decline is mainly due to lower yields in Spain. With reduced domestic supplies, EU lemon imports are expected to increase during the 2024/25 marketing year, while exports are projected to remain stable.

Spain continues to expand its organic lemon cultivation area in response to rising demand for organic lemon peel products. Currently, over 11,500 hectares are dedicated to organic lemon and lime production in the country.

Grapefruit

Grapefruit production is expected to rise to 111,000 MT this marketing year, primarily driven by new plantations in Spain—mainly in Murcia—reaching full production, and groves in drought-affected areas of Andalucía recovering after a difficult previous season.

Spain’s harvest was ready earlier than usual, and the reduced availability of South African grapefruits allowed the larger EU crop to perform well in the market.

EU grapefruit consumption has been revised upward due to the abundant domestic supply. Exports are also projected to grow, benefiting from reduced competition from non-EU Mediterranean producers. Meanwhile, imports are forecast to decline slightly due to the ample local supply.