The future of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), which allows African exports of certain products to the U.S. duty-free, faces uncertainty as Donald Trump prepares to return to the White House, NTU reported. 

Earlier this month, the U.S. completed its annual AGOA eligibility review, confirming that there would be no changes to the lists of eligible and ineligible countries. However, with the programme set to expire in September 2025, its renewal remains in doubt.

Enacted in 2000 under President Bill Clinton and extended twice, AGOA has been a key pillar of US-Africa trade relations. Yet, Trump’s focus on trade reciprocity starkly contrasts with AGOA’s one-sided benefits, which allow African countries to export to the US duty-free without requiring them to open their own markets. 

There is speculation that if AGOA is renewed, it could become more transactional, potentially reducing the scope of tariff-free access.The impact of AGOA’s uncertain future could be felt most acutely by South Africa, which accounts for more than 30% of African exports under the programme. 

South Africa’s continued participation has faced increasing scrutiny, particularly due to its classification as an upper-middle-income country. Critics argue that AGOA’s benefits should be focused on lower-income nations, especially as 17 African countries, some much less developed than South Africa, do not qualify for AGOA. 

South Africa’s diplomatic ties with Russia, China, and Iran, along with its decision to bring Israel to the International Court of Justice over its military actions in Gaza, have further complicated its standing. 

Relations with the U.S. worsened after claims were made by the U.S. ambassador to South Africa that the country had supplied weapons to Russia, claims later disproven by an inquiry. Tensions also escalated when South Africa chose to participate in joint naval exercises with Russia and China, both of which are seen as adversaries by the West. 

Despite these issues, U.S. lawmakers have so far decided against formally reevaluating South Africa’s relationship with the nation, concluding that it does not present a significant national security threat. Nevertheless, Trump’s return to the presidency could have significant implications for AGOA. 

The law requires U.S. legislators to conduct annual eligibility reviews of the programme’s beneficiaries, and for South Africa, maintaining its beneficiary status is vital. AGOA grants preferential access for about 20% of South Africa’s exports to the U.S., and the country stands to lose the most if the programme is not renewed next year.

South Africa’s membership in BRICS could also put its AGOA eligibility at risk. Recently, Trump warned that countries in the BRICS group could face “100% tariffs” if they pursued a new currency to rival the US dollar. 

Some analysts, however, believe that Trump’s return may not necessarily mean the end of AGOA. Africa accounts for less than 1% of U.S. imports, limiting its overall economic impact. Moreover, AGOA serves U.S. geopolitical interests, especially in countering China’s growing influence in Africa. 

Under Trump, AGOA could be viewed as a strategic tool to strengthen ties with African nations while securing access to critical minerals. For instance, in December, President Joe Biden visited Angola to endorse the Lobito Corridor railway project, which aims to transport copper and cobalt from the Democratic Republic of Congo and Zambia to Angola’s Lobito port. 

The U.S. Development Finance Corporation (DFC) has committed $553 million to the project, which is seen as a way to reduce China’s dominance in Africa’s resource sector. Analysts expect Trump to take a hard stance on China and could potentially support parts of the Lobito project. 

In 2023, total U.S. imports under AGOA amounted to $9.7 billion. Nigeria led with $3.8 billion in exports, primarily crude oil, while South Africa followed with $3.6 billion, dominated by non-oil exports such as vehicles, jewelry, and citrus fruit. Other notable exporters under AGOA included Kenya ($510 million), Ghana ($340 million), Madagascar ($339 million), and Angola ($260 million).

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