Agronometrics in Charts: GTD Exclusive: I probably wouldn’t like to be in their shoes in January 2025
Guest article by Diego Castagnasso, a fresh produce and blueberry industry expert. Loud, opinionated, INFORMED! Diego writes DC’s B-Side’s newsletter as he speaks and speaks as he writes. You can subscribe, under your own peril, to his newsletter here or visit his less fun (for now) website Drip Consulting.
Whom?
The average US consumers, but more importantly the fresh, crunchy blueberry-consuming ones.
Why wouldn’t you?
Because if Trump’s Tariffs become a reality, and the Port’s Strike starts again, the consumers will be facing…
Higher costs, not just because of the tariffs but because the blueberries would have to arrive by air or by truck, from ports on the West Coast.
Delays, the re-routing will take time, we saw that movie… then, the cargo will be put in trucks or trains to travel to the East Coast.
Quality issues, arrive when delays appear, and this time won't be an exception
Fewer Options, January and February are usually 100% imports from Chile, Peru, and Mexico, so NO local fruit, unless you are talking frozen ones.
US Fresh Blueberry Imports By Partner | Cultivated Conventional
Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.
(Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)
Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.
(Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)
But weren’t you talking about the tariffs last week, and about the strikes like... 2 months ago?
Oh! I am proud, you were paying attention!!
Yes, I was!... but like in the movie “The Perfect Storm”, shit keeps piling up for the US consumer.
And what about the exporters?
Peru Fresh Blueberry Exports By Partner | Cultivated Conventional
Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.
(Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)
Chile Fresh Blueberry Exports By Partner | Cultivated Conventional
Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.
(Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)
Mexico Fresh Blueberry Exports By Partner | Cultivated Conventional
Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.
(Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)
Planning will be the key to success!
If the tariffs and the strikes become a reality they will affect the countries differently, but it is clear that the US is the Nº 1 CLIENT for all of them.
Peru. will be more affected by the strikes because the tariffs would only affect the product out of the new port of Chancay.
Chile. Only the strikes will play a role here, so anticipating how to work the logistics within the US will be a MUST.
Mexico. The tariffs would be the problem, and they might struggle a bit with land transportation too, because it will be in high demand due to the strikes.
Others. Those countries move smaller volumes, so airfreight sounds like the way to go.
But why go back to these issues?
Well…
Last Thursday a client of mine asked me…
What are the chances of both, the strikes and the tariffs happening in January 2025…?
My answer… (short version)
Even if they happen, implementing tariffs is not easy, and many things might change before they are applied.
Strikes, on the other hand, are a VERY real threat, and planning for them won't be a waste of time.
Free tip: If you are an avid blueberry consumer, you will, probably, like to buy some frozen blues before those prices, also, go up.
….and that is why we are reviewing both issues again but, at the same time.
Do you have questions about how the tariffs and strikes will impact your business, but you need more than an 81-word answer?
I got you covered...
You will get a longer and more detailed answer, including:
Personalized analysis of your specific situation.
Strategies to mitigate risks and maximize opportunities.
Insights into the latest market trends.
And the best part is... you get to re-question me if you need more info.
Schedule your CALL NOW!
You have less than 28 days and counting before prices go up!
Have a Great Week!!!
And remember, if you liked what you read, send it to a friend, if not unsubscribe…
PS: For Chile’s sake, I hope everything gets pushed closer to March so their peak would be able to land on US soil without many problems.