In this installment of the ‘Agronometrics In Charts’ series, we analyze the impact of the California avocado crop on rising prices in the US market. Each week the series looks at a different horticultural commodity, focusing on a specific origin or topic visualizing the market factors that are driving change.

The global avocado market is currently grappling with shortages, primarily due to a reduction in USDA inspections and weather-related trucking delays. This supply crunch has tightened availability and pushed prices higher, leaving consumers and businesses bracing for continued challenges in the coming weeks.

Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.

(Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)

Mexico, the leading supplier of avocados to the United States, is facing a critical shortage of all avocado sizes. Compounding the issue are quality concerns such as checkerboarding, which diminish the visual appeal and marketability of the fruit. These factors are expected to limit Mexican avocado exports during a time of peak demand.

Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.

(Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)

Amid these challenges, the U.S. avocado industry looks to California for relief. The state, which resumed regular USDA inspections in mid-January, is gearing up for what is expected to be its largest avocado crop since 2020. According to Terry Splane, vice president of marketing for the California Avocado Commission (CAC), promotable volumes of California avocados should hit the market by late March or early April, with a strong supply expected to last through the summer.

Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.

(Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)

California’s avocado growers have faced their share of weather-related hurdles, including high winds in certain growing regions. However, consistent investment and the planting of new avocado trees over the past decade have improved per-acre yields. This forward-looking approach has positioned California to deliver a robust crop, supported by favorable growing conditions in regions like San Diego, Ventura, and San Luis Obispo counties.

“Growers are monitoring weather conditions, particularly rain and sunshine, to support optimal fruit development,” says Splane. Harvesting typically begins earlier in southern regions and progresses northward, depending on grove-specific factors.

The 2024 harvest is slightly ahead of last year’s pace, driven by favorable market conditions. Some California growers are already harvesting to support promotions for major events like the Super Bowl on February 9. Early availability means that regional retailers can begin carrying California avocados ahead of the traditional peak season, which is expected to coincide with spring and summer.

With its largest crop since 2020, California is poised to play a pivotal role in alleviating the current avocado shortage and ensuring that this beloved fruit remains accessible to consumers nationwide.