The USDA's citrus forecast for February shows that the Florida citrus industry continues to struggle. Production volumes for all categories are projected to drop year over year.

The state's all-orange forecast, released by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board, is 11.5 million boxes, down 500,000 from the January forecast. This represents a 36% drop from last season’s final production. 

The forecast consists of 4.50 million boxes of non-Valencia oranges (early, mid-season, and Navel varieties) and 7.00 million boxes of Valencia oranges.

The report indicates that Valencia oranges' current fruit size is below average and is projected to remain below average at harvest.

For non-Valencia oranges, the Row Count survey conducted January 28-29, 2025, showed 95% of the early and mid-season rows, excluding Navels, are harvested.

Grapefruit forecast

With 62% of the grapefruit rows harvested, the report shows that overall grapefruit production is forecast to be down 100,000 boxes from January. Total grapefruit output is expected to be 1.10 million boxes, down from last season's 1.78 million.

However, white and red grapefruit's final size are above average.

The total lemon output is forecast at 600,000 boxes, carried over from the January forecast.  

Tangerines and Mandarins

Even though the forecast for tangerines and tangelos increased by 50,000 boxes from the January forecast, the total output expected for the season is still 22% lower than the 450,000 boxes during the previous season. 

Florida Citrus industry reacts

Matt Joyner, executive vice president and CEO of Florida Citrus Mutual, said in a release that the USDA's forecast reflects the tremendous adversity Florida’s citrus growers continue to face after two decades of citrus greening and devastating hurricanes.

"What the numbers don’t reflect is the resilience and hope many multi-generational citrus growers have in the future of Florida’s citrus industry,” Joyner said. "We remain focused on finding long-term solutions to bolster Florida’s signature crop. It will require the collective effort of researchers, legislators, industry leaders, and others.”

State authorities are already taking action to help the state's signature crop recover from two decades of citrus greening and recent major hurricanes. 

On Monday, February 3, 2025, Governor Ron DeSantis announced the proposed Focus on Fiscal Responsibility Budget for 2025-2026 ahead of this year’s legislative session, which includes more than $20 million for the Citrus Health Response Program and other citrus research.

Of the $20 million, $7 million is for advertising and additional research through the Florida Department of Citrus to increase tree production and advance technologies that produce trees resistant to citrus greening.

Additionally, researchers at the University of Florida | Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences are making headway in the fight against citrus greening with a newly developed citrus tree designed to combat the Asian citrus psyllid, which is responsible for spreading citrus greening disease.

Related article: Florida citrus industry asks state lawmakers for help