The USDA released its agricultural projection for U.S. agricultural trade and local production from 2023-2034, showing different market trends for fruit and tree nuts. 

The report covers GDP growth projections for the main markets around the world. Starting with the U.S., it notes that during the projection period from 2025–34, the U.S. real GDP growth is projected at an annual average of 1.8 percent, quite a bit lower than the previous decade’s growth rate of 2.3 percent from 2015–24.

"However, the previous decade’s growth rate includes the high growth from the prepandemic years as well as the high recovery rates of growth post-pandemic," the report says.

Overall, the projected growth rates for the United States reflect slow and steady growth.

High-income country outlook

Other high-income countries and regions are expected to have slightly slower GDP growth than the U.S.

The European Union's average growth rate is projected to be 1.6 percent during 2025–34, similar to the previous decade’s average. 

Japan's growth during 2025-34 is projected to average 0.9 percent annually, continuing an established downward trend associated with an aging and shrinking labor force, compounded by inflation and a depreciating yen.

Additionally, Canada is projected to average 1.9 percent annual growth over 2025–34, an increase over the previous decade's 1.6 percent annual average.

Lower-middle and low-income country outlook

The report indicates that economies in low-middle and low-income countries will grow steadily through this period. 

"Low-income economies continue to recover more rapidly than developed economies. As of August 2024, the low-income countries’ real GDP growth was expected to be 4.9 percent in 2025, averaging 5.0 percent for 2025–34 compared to only 2.3 percent growth for 2015–24," the report indicates. 

These economies remain a key factor in the demand for agricultural products. 

Real GDP growth in low-income regions will continue to outpace growth in high-income countries during 2025–34.

Additionally, GDP growth rates are projected to vary substantially by country and region during the projection period. China, India, and Southeast Asia are projected to have the highest growth rates globally, and East Asia and Latin America are projected to experience more conservative growth. 

The report also adds that real GDP in Latin America is expected to grow 2.7 percent in 2025. Growth is projected to average 3.0 percent annually from 2025–34 compared to their low average growth of 0.9 percent from 2015–24.

Projections for fruit and tree nuts 

The combined farm value of fruit, tree nuts, vegetables, and pulse crop production is projected to reach $68.8 billion by calendar year 2034, up from $56.5 billion in 2023. By 2034, the value of fruit (citrus and noncitrus) will represent 37 percent of the total value of the category.

U.S. fruit and tree nut production is expected to remain at around 50 billion pounds throughout the period. The category's value will reach $35.5 billion in 2034, up from $28.8 billion in 2023. 

The production volume for grapes, strawberries, and apples is expected to increase slightly, while production for stone fruits like peaches, plums, apricots, and nectarines is expected to decline slowly.

The value of production for all noncitrus fruits is expected to increase by 23 percent, reaching $22.1 billion. 

The citrus struggle 

Total citrus production levels, including oranges, grapefruit, lemons, and tangerines, are projected to continue their long-term decline until the middle of the period before stabilizing.

"This trend is attributable to declining orange and grapefruit production alongside increasing production of lemons and tangerines," the report says. 

California is expected to remain the country's leading producer of citrus fruits. However, its production of grapefruit and oranges is expected to contract mildly as it loses domestic market share to other citrus and noncitrus fruits. 

Lemon and tangerine production in the state will increase during this period. 

However, it seems like Florida's citrus growers will continue experiencing their decades-long decline in volume. 

Many groves in the state are expected to be converted to other uses. The state has struggled for years with citrus greening disease and extreme weather events. 

Volumes and acreage in Texas and Arizona, which account for a small share of the country's citrus production, are also expected to decline. 

"Total value of citrus production in the United States is projected to increase approximately 40 percent during the 2023–34 period due to higher prices," the report indicates.