Guest article by Diego Castagnasso, a fresh produce and blueberry industry expert. Loud, opinionated, INFORMED! Diego writes DC’s B-Side’s newsletter as he speaks and speaks as he writes. You can subscribe, under your own peril, to his newsletter here or visit his less fun (for now) website Drip Consulting.

Last week I left you with an “idea”, a question really…

Are we looking at a “bubble” in the blueberry industry?

Did you think about it?

Well, one of you did…. and wrote me an email saying…

“…I really enjoyed this one because it's the first time I've seen someone in the industry pointing out something I think is obvious now, the bubble in blueberry production!...”

Thanks Clark

But how do we get here?

No no, not the bubble…

How do we get from a few blueberry varieties to this “exponential” growth?

As the market grew, we are talking about billions now, more and more players came into the BLUE-breeding-game, some totally new and some old in the berry business but new to the blues.

The “old” game was much easier and local. There were breeders, nurseries and farmers or growers, and 2 main market models

Breeder: Michigan State University, USDA-ARS, University of Florida, University of Georgia.

Models:

Open Systems (Public) Varieties are released into the public domain, freely available for anyone to propagate and grow, no royalties.

Semi-Open Systems (Licensed)Breeder licenses nurseries and/or growers to propagate and grow varieties, often with royalty payments.

In this case the fruit was sold LOCALLY, usually by the grower to a farmer’s market, local retailer or a pick it up yourself system.

The “new” game was driven by increasing consumer demand for year-round availability, health benefits associated with antioxidants, and premium fruit quality.

To get to year-round availability the fruit needed to come from abroad and so they got to Chile, and eventually the world.

New players and business models appear.

Breeder-Nurseries: Fall Creek Farm & Nursery and Planasa are one of the most recognized of these players.

These companies are involved in both breeding new blueberry varieties and propagating plants for sale to growers. They play a crucial role in developing varieties with improved traits such as flavor, yield, disease resistance, and adaptability to different climates.

Producer-Breeders: Hortifruit, Camposol and Costa Group are great examples of this.

These companies are primarily focused on blueberry production but also have their own breeding programs to develop varieties specifically suited to their needs and target markets. They often collaborate with universities and research institutions to leverage the latest advancements in breeding technologies.

Producer-Commercializer-Breeders: Driscoll's, Mountain Blue Orchards, Sekoya and United Export - OZBlu compete here.

These companies are integrated across the blueberry supply chain, from breeding and production to commercialization and marketing. They often have a strong focus on branding and developing premium blueberry varieties for niche markets.

Model:

Closed/Club Systems Breeder controls all aspects: breeding, propagation, growing, marketing. Exclusive rights to select growers.

The last players are, for now, the last step in the breeders E”blue”lution.

But are there limits in the characteristics of the PREMIUM niche market?

How big do we need a blueberry to be?

How long do we need the blues to last?

How much crispier do we need the fruit to be?

Or how productive the plants need to be?

Finally, are the Eureka Gold, Sekoya pop or Magica blueberry varieties in this premium niche so different from each other?

I don’t think so!!!

But if you analyze it, you would see that, today, one player is certainly pushing the limit…

SEKOYA (Sekoya POP) is definitely growing at an accelerated pace in that niche.

You can see it in Peru, right now, Colombia is already talking about growing it in part of those 5000 hectares they will plant in the next few years, and in every other place that wants to grow in the premium market.

And again, my mind wonders…

I can see how fast the variety is being planted and how the kilograms of the premium fruit are growing…

But is the Premium niche growing as fast as they are planting?

What would happen when the premium market gets saturated, and the price drops?

That would be something for the Growers to decide… hopefully before they invest!

Next stop: The Growers

Making Critical Breeding Decisions?

Schedule your focused strategy CALL NOW to:

- Evaluate breeding program partnership options

- Assess premium variety market sustainability

- Review your variety portfolio risk exposure

Have a Great Week!!!

And remember, if you liked what you read, send it to a friend, if not unsubscribe…

PS: Bear in mind that a niche market is a focused portion of a larger market, defined by unique characteristics, needs, or preferences, and that is why they are willing to pay the big bucks for those unique characteristics.

What would happen when those characteristics are NO LONGER UNIQUE… but common?

PS1: I would say Chapeau to the marketing team at Sekoya because they are selling the BRAND and the PLANTS in a great way. Much better than the others in the same category.