The Hass Avocado Board and Cirad, an agricultural research firm, have partnered to provide a mid-term projection of avocado production in the main U.S. avocado-supplying countries. The goal is to help investors, growers, and industry members anticipate marketing efforts.

The project, which began in 2019, examined the avocado market in key countries, including Peru, Mexico, California, Chile, and Colombia. Five years later, both organizations revisited the avocado sector to assess how the market has evolved and to anticipate industry trends leading up to 2030.

According to the report, avocado cultivation has continued expanding, with a steady increase in avocado orchards from 2019 to 2022. However, since then, new plantings have slowed sharply.

The estimated avocado cultivation area in 2024 was 76,750 hectares, with the four primary avocado-supplying regions remaining Olmos, Chavimochic, the Lima Valleys, and Sierra.

Both Olmos and Chavimochic have seen a slowdown in planting rates. Olmos has been affected by lower profitability, increased water constraints, extreme weather, and lower-than-expected yields. Chavimochic has faced challenges due to a lack of affordable land, saturation in both the growing zone and trading window, and the rise of competing crops, such as blueberries and new grape varieties.

Meanwhile, the Lima Valleys and Sierra regions continue to develop at a slower pace.

Changes in Peru’s Avocado Market Over the Last Five Years

The report highlights several socioeconomic, climate, and political factors that have influenced the Peruvian avocado market over the past five years.

Avocado profitability has declined due to rising global and national costs, disappointing yields, lower economic returns caused by EU competition, a saturated market window, intensifying climate issues, political instability, and the increasing profitability of competing crops like blueberries and new grape varieties.

Although growth is expected to slow, the report indicates that new plantings should remain positive. To improve productivity and yields, it recommends replanting with better-suited rootstocks to address climate change and salinity issues, as well as enhancing technical management practices.