As uncertainty over trade wars, tariffs, and ongoing conflicts in some of the world's most critical trade routes continues, port exporters are trying to anticipate what will happen in the coming years.

On March 12, a panel of experts discussed the impact of geopolitical changes on ports during a webinar organized by the International Association of Ports and Harbors (IAPH).

The webinar explored what the maritime sector can do to read effectively between the lines, understand what happens next, and prepare ports to respond to those changes.

The speakers agreed that ports and carriers are highly concerned about the state of the supply chain, especially considering measures that could have catastrophic consequences.

Current situation in the U.S.

Cary Davis, President & CEO of the American Association of Port Authorities (AAPA), said this is a time of retrenchment, uncertainty, and protectionism. 

Davis said he hasn't spoken with anyone who remembers a single time when a U.S. president mentioned shipbuilding or maritime supply chains in a State of the Union address.

"This means that while there are challenges, there are also opportunities for the revitalization of U.S. maritime," Davis said. 

Based in Washington, D.C., AAPA advocates for seaport authority interests in the U.S. and has associations in Canada, Latin America, and the Caribbean. 

Davis highlighted the agreement between the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) and the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) reached earlier this month, saying President Trump waded into the debate in a very public way.

Regarding tariffs, he said the tax bill proposed by Trump and his party will impact trade.

"Tariff policy is not just trade policy; it is much more; it's tax policy, foreign affairs policy, and in some way a criminal policy," he said. 

Davis explained that the ship-to-shore cranes in use at U.S. ports need to be renewed as they reach the end of their useful life. The newer generations of cranes also have cleaner, faster technologies that accommodate larger vessels.

"This issue is playing out in two ways because the government has imposed 25% tariffs on importing these cranes from China. There are also significant restrictions on using U.S. public dollars to buy any foreign equipment," Davis specified. 

These cranes have not been built in the U.S. in over 40 years. 

How can the international community help?

Davis emphasized that the international community must repeat the refrain that "tariffs are taxes."

"Who pays for tariffs? Everyone, because there are increases in the costs of import and transport that are pushed down to the consumer," he said. 

For example, he said tariffs on cranes will increase the cost of doing business and, ultimately, the cost of consumer goods.

Canada and Mexico

Davis said he is unclear on Trump's endgame with tariffs on Canada and Mexico.

He said the countries are headed toward a new trade agreement between the three North American nations "to get us to a much more fair trading place."

Based on the U.S. dependence on trade with Canada and Mexico, around 40 out of the 50 states have one of those two nations as their primary trading partner.

Proposed tax on Chinese-built and flagged vessels

Last month, the U.S. Trade Representative's Office (USTR) proposed to charge up to $1.5 million to Chinese ships docking in U.S. ports and $500,000 for ship operators with only one vessel in their fleet built in China or ordered from a Chinese shipyard.

Regarding the proposal, Davis said it could cost between $1 million and $3.5 million per voyage to the U.S., impacting 98% of all U.S. ports.

"This will impact 40% dry bulk, 35% liquid bulk, and 20% container, so this proposal will impact every trade segment," Davis said. 

Additionally, he warned that this would have an inflationary effect on the country.

Global overview of logistics

In 2024, global shipping volumes increased by 6.2%, reaching a record 183 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) globally.

Nigel Pusey, CEO of Container Trade Statistics, said this is a massive increase, one the industry had not seen in at least five years.

"Indian subcontinent trade to the U.S. has had significant movement, with a 15% growth in 2024, mainly to the East Coast. However, there is also significant growth on the U.S. West Coast, especially in Los Angeles," he said. 

He added that trade between the Far East, India’s subcontinent, and the Middle East is one to watch, with a 2.5 million TEU increase over the last two years.

"We've seen a 12% increase in 2024 and a 35% growth over 2022," Pusey said. "The increases here have been led by China, with a 14% increase, showing great opportunity with vessel capacity."

In 2025, volumes have already risen around 6%, which could indicate a positive year ahead for the supply chain.