Agronometrics in Charts: The always elusive prey…. the blueberry CLIENT

Guest article by Diego Castagnasso, a fresh produce and blueberry industry expert. Loud, opinionated, INFORMED! Diego writes DC’s B-Side’s newsletter as he speaks and speaks as he writes. You can subscribe, under your own peril, to his newsletter here or visit his less fun (for now) website Drip Consulting.
DISCLAIMER:
After my trip to Peru, I came inspired and sent 2 separate emails to the readers in my list, the weekly Newsletter and THE BONUS.
Since the beginning of time, humanity has been hunting for something…
- Deer
- Mammoth
- Rabbit
And why not..
- Channels on the TV set
- Power
- Blueberry CLIENTS
Although we are not after the “person”, but the money in their accounts…
…. That money gives us the POWER to buy the TV so we can have a remote control to “hunt” for the Gourmet CHANNEL and find a recipe on how to cook the RABBIT we bought at the supermarket.
Did I lose you?
Sorry I was at a friend’s 50th birthday until late.
But if you are a blueberry producer, you are not hunting…
You are into agriculture!!
OK… Yes and No… but allowed me the “metaphor”.
Let’s get back on “track.”…
So, to hunt for our client, we need to lure him first… and here is where things get blurry.
What are the characteristics of our product that will get it to buy our stuff?
- Is it Taste?
- Is it Size?
- Is it the wellness it provides (antioxidants, vitamins, etc)
- Is it Price?
- Or how long can we keep them in the refrigerator?
Usually, there is a combo, but there is ALWAYS a main driver.
It was November 2016, and Uruguay was ready to be able to export to China, but there was a last official visit from the AQSIQ (General Administration of Quality Supervision, Inspection and Quarantine) to some farms to check that things were as they should…
Quick reference: at that time, everybody KNEW that the Chinese CLIENT was looking for BIG and SWEET fruit, or so I thought…
My farm was one of the 3 selected…
The 4 delegates started looking at the fly traps, asking technical questions, etc.
The woman in charge asked if we could go back to the O’neal’s lot.
Horrible decision…!!
The lot was abandoned at that time, so there was a lot of over-ripened fruit, and at almost 30 C the aroma of alcohol was a bit short of intoxicating…
They walked and ate the SMALL, HOT, SOFT, and SWEET fruit.
After a while, I was able to convince them to try the other fruit, my objective the EMERALD, that WAS supposed to be the type of product that the Chinese were looking for and I was able to offer it right there and then.
They did reluctantly…
And as we were heading to the last farm, the woman told me…
“You need to sell China this fruit, pointing at an O’Neal’s clamshell, best fruit I had at your farm, but you need to plant more of it in China; we eat a lot”
I was in front of the “proverbial” client, and she was telling me what they want, and that was TOTALLY different from what the market (industry) was saying.
One year later, the O’Neal was decommissioned and the lot cleaned.
Fast forward to last week (March 10th/14th 2025) …
More than 3 blueberry congresses were held in 3 different cities…
But let’s concentrate on the two.
- Fruitnet Berry Congress. And they wrote…
”A key takeaway from the day was the need for better consumer messaging on the health benefits of regular berry consumption. Young consumers, in particular, should be the focus of targeted campaigns that tap into the growing wellness trend.”
- 34th Blueberry Seminar (Lima). And there I heard…
"The ‘health' factor is no longer what people are looking for in a blueberry..."
Why is this happening?
Why that difference?
Maybe because one thing is having a Retailer as a client and the other is having “Grandma” as one?
In any case, it seems that the retailer is “telling” Grandma what to eat or not?
I would like to know what people pick up at the farms when they are choosing for themselves.
One thing is sure: we can easily know if a fruit is bigger than another, and we can try different varieties to know the best flavor for us, BUT….
… Do we know which variety is the HEALTHIEST?
A lot of money is being spent in research to tell us that blueberries are good for our health, but NOBODY is telling us if a “Premium Jumbo” 20mm+ variety has more antioxidants or more vitamins than a “standard” 14mm+ berry.
Maybe the next stage of the EblueLUTION will let us know exactly what type of blueberry we want to eat…
For now, it seems we will have to choose between size, taste, and crunchiness and leave the health variable for later.
In the ever-evolving blueberry market, are you truly in tune with your customer?
What steps are you taking to ensure you're meeting their needs and exceeding their expectations?
AND NOW THE BONUS…
Hi all…
again….
In Monday's issue I talked about a few characteristics of blueberries that were Important to attract the “client”.
I named some of them but I left one with no details on purpose…
Why?
Well 2 reasons:
It is more important to the “retailer client” than to “grandma”
This characteristic of working together with the capacity to extend the production windows generates a scary scenario for some…
The shelf life or post-harvest life of the blueberry.
New varieties have all the characteristics I mentioned but they stay fresh for longer, allowing the fruit to arrive in good condition at distant markets around the world.
Let’s look at the Chart
YES, YES!! I know you live 2 blocks from the port, and it takes your containers 20 minutes to arrive there or your average client eats the blueberry before leaving the supermarket, so they don’t need to have them at home for 4 days.
DULY NOTED
So, who is the beneficiary of the longer life of the blues?
- 1st The Producer. He can get to distant markets with good quality.
- 2nd The Importer. He can play with the spot market to get a better price.
- 3rd The Retailer. He can buy larger volumes at lower prices and divide the shipment into more selling dates before having to move them quickly at a lower price.
BUT WHAT IS THE SCARY PART?!?!?!
Hey! Don’t shout at me… I have a wife and 2 daughters for that….
Now let’s see what a longer season can do…
And here, the USA is a great example look…
Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.
(Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)
Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.
(Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)
Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.
(Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)
But who were the most relevant actors in the US market?
Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.
(Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)
Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.
(Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)
Clearly, as Peru’s production window gets wider, with better lasting varieties and bigger volumes its position, in the American mind, might change, from being an ally to a nuisance and ultimately a problem for the local production…
… but when you add Mexico…
Well, things get problematic… to say the least.
But although we can see the evolution of these complicated scenarios better in the US, I think that the next EXPLOSIVE problem will be, not in the US, but in CHINA.
Why??
- China grows at the highest rate in the blueberry industry with the newest varieties available.
This means great production capacity per hectare, bigger fruit, great taste, and obviously longer post-harvest life.
- Huge local market but still young so consumption per capita needs to grow to get closer to the old market’s standards.
Growing demand takes longer than growing blueberries, nowadays with all these great existing breeding programs.
- They already have overlapped with Peruvian production and started exporting the “same” quality in other markets in the region that are closer to them than Peru.
If you were in Kuala Lumpur, what fruit would you buy first, a Peruvian blueberry with at least 45 days on its back or a 10 to 15-day-old blues from the Yunnan province?
- In the next 3 years Peru will have more than 400.000 tons of blueberries and a more plateau production, I HOPE FOR THEIR SAKE, where will they land that production?
Are you scared yet?
Tough readers…
Let’s throw a bit more into the “fire”…
- Chile’s production with new varieties getting better quality and going to Europe because the US was a bit “swamped” with Peruvian blues…
- Colombia’s 5000 extra hectares for the next few years.
- Morocco keeps growing in volume, a wider window and the best varieties.
I will stop for now… if I keep on digging, I will end up in CHINA… pun intended!
Have a GREAT rest of the Week!!!
Oh! That thing with the CALL… is still the same, so NO Scheduling for now. Thanks!
And remember, if you liked what you read, send it to a friend, if not unsubscribe…
PS: Oh! I almost forgot, all this longer post-harvest life and without adding external help like Ripelocker tech.
PS1: The blueberry industry is undergoing rapid transformation. How will you adapt to thrive in this evolving landscape?... I read you…