Mexican avocado production and exports projected up in 2025
Mexican avocado production is projected to reach 3.03 million tons in 2025, representing a 3% increase from an estimated 2.94 million tons in 2024, a recent USDA annual report stated. This growth is attributed to favorable growing conditions, enhanced agricultural practices, and strong export demand.
The area planted with avocados is expected to remain relatively stable in 2025, covering approximately 636,000 acres, as producers report limited new plantings due to stricter enforcement of land use regulations and a new deforestation-free certification program in Michoacán. Data from Mexico's Agri-food and Fisheries Information Service (SIAP) indicates that the planted area for avocados in 2024 was around 634,000 acres, reflecting a 1% decrease from 2023.
Michoacán is Mexico's top avocado-producing state, responsible for 68% of the country's production, followed by Jalisco with 12%, and the State of Mexico with 5%. In 2024, Michoacán experienced a 1% decline in production due to unfavorable climatic conditions and increased enforcement actions, including fines imposed on orchards located on deforested land.
Conversely, Jalisco's production grew by 5%, driven by export demand and sufficient water resources. While Michoacán and Jalisco are the only states eligible to export to the United States, other states also export to international markets and supply the domestic market.
Trade
President Trump’s administration's recent announcement of a 10% baseline on all U.S. trading partners has caused widespread concern in the produce business. However, avocados will maintain a 0% tariff as long as they comply with the T-MEC rules of origin.
This becomes especially relevant as avocado exports are forecast to reach 1.48 million tons in 2025, according to the USDA. If realized, this would mean a 5% year-on-year increase to meet rising international demand, primarily from the United States. In 2024, estimated exports were around 1.41 million tons, down 9% from 2023, mainly due to rising logistical costs and harvest fluctuations.
Exports to the United States totaled approximately 1.18 million tons in 2024, marking a 5% decrease compared to the previous year. The U.S. market accounted for over 80% of Mexico's total avocado exports by volume, with Canada at 7% and Japan at 3%.
Although avocado exports occur year-round, the peak season is from December to February, representing over 35% of exports, with the Super Bowl being a significant demand driver for Mexican avocado exports to the United States. In 2024, Mexico provided around 88% of all U.S. avocado imports.
Export markets generally prefer Hass avocados over other varieties due to their taste, texture, and durability. In 2024, avocados ranked third among Mexico's agricultural exports, trailing only beer and tequila but leading ahead of berries and tomatoes.
Starting in July 2024, the USDA revised its supervisory methodology for certifying avocado orchards for export to the United States. This adjustment allows the USDA to monitor daily orchard activities remotely and conduct audits as necessary rather than having a physical presence in every orchard during the third-party certification process.
