Last week, Mexico Table Grapes held its Spring Summit 2025 in San Diego, California, where industry members gathered to discuss the most pressing political and logistical issues.
One day after President Donald Trump announced reciprocal tariffs on every country that trades with the U.S., attendees expressed their uncertainty and expectations about how the market would react to the new measures.
Sergio Lugo, general manager of Mexico Table Grapes, opened the event, saying the occasion gathers industry members under a common purpose: to strengthen the sector, share knowledge, and continue building Mexico's table grape export market.
"In recent years, our industry has faced several challenges, including climate change, tariffs, and sustainability, which require innovation, adaptation, and unity to be dealt with," said Lugo.
He emphasized that these challenges also present opportunities as long as the industry remains united and adopts better practices to guarantee growth.
During the event, the association shared the export projection for Sonoran table grapes from Mexico, which came up to 23,062,113 boxes, a 1.3% increase from 2024.
David Magaña, a senior analyst at Rabobank, discussed the economy, indicating that Trump's "Liberation Day" marked a before-and-after in the world.
One macro event in the economy that Magaña says is affecting the industry is inflation in the U.S. He indicated that inflation could reach between 5 and 6% at the end of 2025, partly due to the imposed tariffs.
Regarding the possibility of a recession, Magaña said there will certainly be one in the U.S.; however, they are not sure when.
On the other hand, consumer confidence hit a very low point in 2022, with many expecting a recession, which was also the year with the highest inflation. This shows that "consumers are very sensible to price increases," Magaña assured.
In terms of the fruit industry in particular, he said U.S. imports have increased exponentially, mainly from Peru, Mexico, and Chile.
"This commercial growth has increased the consumption of fruit since now consumers have almost all products available year-round," Magaña said.
Representatives from the agriculture office of the Mexican embassy in the U.S., Luis Martinez and Brenda Martinez, spoke about the bilateral relationship between Mexico and the U.S.
Since the USMCA, the bilateral agreement between Mexico, Canada, and the U.S., entered into force, the agri-food trade has grown from $7 billion to almost $80 billion.
"The keywords in this relationship are specialization and complementarity," Brenda Martinez said.
Out of all Mexican exports to the U.S., fresh products represent 42%.
Luis Martinez said the new U.S. commercial agenda reflects a global trend, with higher protectionism and administered commerce.
"We have been seeing concerning signals for a while, including speeches that look to blame imports and restrict trade with Mexico," he said.
He said officials from the Mexican embassy are already meeting with U.S. authorities, looking to strengthen constructive dialogue between both trading nations.
Martines added that continuous collaboration between authorities is key to maintaining a strong relationship and minimizing harm to industries like table grape exports.
"We are at a crucial point for the future of exports, and we must think about how we can strengthen our position in governments and in the private sector. We do not have to wait because this sector has a lot of variables and challenges," he said.
The first edition of GrapeTech will be held on June 18 at the Casino Monticello Event Center. The event, organized by UvaNova and Yentzen Group, will be the most important technical event on table grapes in Chile and will bring together world experts to provide technical aspects that allow the growth of the industry, such as post-harvest issues, crop management, analysis of new varieties and nutrition, among others—more information at events@yentzengroup.com or visit www.grapetechconvention.com.
