U.S. tropical fruits retail prices projected to increase between 9% and 18%
A report by the international cooperative bank Rabobank projects that the U.S. imposed tariffs will significantly raise prices of selected imported seasonal fruits and tropical fruits.
Since the United States imports nearly 100% of a wide variety of tropical fruits - such as bananas, pineapples, mangoes, and papayas - the report projects that these fruits could see a year-over-year retail price increase of between 9% and 18%.
Prices for fresh fruits with both domestic production and significant trade levels would vary depending on the season, the report adds. The U.S. is a major producer of apples and tree nuts; therefore, retail prices for apples and tree nuts are expected to see limited impact.
Exports of U.S. fresh fruits are showing a declining trend. Tariffs play a role in the downturn, but other factors - such as reduced production of grapefruit and oranges, a strong domestic market for fruits like berries and avocados, market access barriers for apples and grapes due to retaliatory tariffs, and increased labor costs - also play a significant part.
U.S. tree nut exports, on the other hand, have grown almost ninefold over the past three decades, the report states, with 70% of U.S. tree nut production designated for export. Last year, the industry was worth nearly $10 billion. The main driver behind the increase was the expansion of almond and pistachio plantings in California.
Higher tariffs might hurt the industry and reduce the competitiveness of U.S. tree nuts in China. However, exports to Vietnam have increased recently. According to the report, sources say more California almonds are being sent to China via Vietnam, where they are roasted to bypass the tariff - a trend the report says is expected to continue.
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