In this installment of the ‘Agronometrics In Charts’ series, we take a look at the impact of U.S. tariffs on Chilean apples. Each week the series looks at a different horticultural commodity, focusing on a specific origin or topic visualizing the market factors that are driving change.

Chilean apple exports are expected to remain steady in the 2024/2025 market year (July 2024–June 2025), according to new forecasts from the USDA. Ample rainfall and winter chill from the early 2025 La Nina offset decreased acreage and are likely to lead to yields as high as 920,000 tons.

This steady production, ensured by a multitude of factors such as geography and agricultural technology, has also guaranteed a slight increase in apple exports to 530,000 tons. Chile currently leads the world in exports of the Gala and Pink Lady apple variety, which are a popular choice of consumers in Latin and North America. Brazil’s market, currently valued at $60.3 million, has surpassed Colombia and Ecuador as the main destination of Chilean apples, an incredible milestone for the Chilean apple industry.

Brazil’s participation in the regional trade agreement, the Southern Common Market (MERCOSUR), a growing population and proximity to Chile (reduced shipping and delivery costs) have propelled the Brazilian market to be the top destination for Chilean apples. The geographic proximity alone has given Brazil a cost effective alternative to American apples, which face higher shipping costs, duties and a  harvest season that doesn’t align with Brazilian demand.

The 2025 season alone is expected to further see Brazilian demands for Chilean apples rise by roughly 14.6% to 36,547 tons. Although Latin America remains a key market for the apple industry in Chile, China, the Netherlands and the United States remain very large and important markets for apple products.

However, given recent U.S. tariffs put forth by President Donald Trump, Chile’s apple industry could likely, albeit indirectly, have more demand for competitively priced apples from countries looking to avoid paying extra duties. With tariffs expected to remain in place, retaliatory tariffs from U.S. trading partners will continue, affecting U.S. influence in regional and global markets as foreign buyers, such as Brazil, look to other markets for economical alternatives, continuing to drive demand for American apples down.

Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.

(Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)

In our ‘In Charts’ series, we work to tell some of the stories that are moving the industry. Feel free to take a look at the other articles by clicking here.

All pricing for domestic US produce represents the spot market at Shipping Point (i.e. packing house/climate controlled warehouse, etc.). For imported fruit, the pricing data represents the spot market at Port of Entry. You can keep track of the markets daily through Agronometrics, a data visualization tool built to help the industry make sense of the huge amounts of data that professionals need to access to make informed decisions. If you found the information and the charts from this article useful, feel free to visit us at www.agronometrics.com where you can easily access these same graphs, or explore the other 21 commodities we currently track.